Hamas, Gaza & Iran

Most of the people that know me know I work as an Intel Analyst for the Army. It isn't all that glorious and there is mostly paperwork with what I do, but every once in a while something pops up that I look at and can't believe that the media and general public just don't get.
I went to the mall and was stopped at the iPod kiosk by a kid who is Israeli. We somehow got onto the Hamas rockets landing on Israel and I told him what I think. Now, let me state clearly this is my own opinion and I have not read ANY classified material on this. It is all open source (internet) and personal opinion or conjecture.

The most basic question is where is Hamas getting its money? This is not a hard one to figure out: Iran. So for the past six months of 2008 there was a cease fire put into place brokered by the moderate moving Egypt.
Then the rockets started up again. These are small, homemade rockets that can travel from Gaza and land indescriminately in Israel (or not as one of the rockets landed back in Gaza killing two young girls.) Hamas had been launching tens of rockets every day into Israel before the cease fire, they now have launched 250 or so in a week since they broke the agreement.
Side note: Hamas says Israel broke the agreement (not that I have seen any proof) and Israel says Hamas broke it by launching more rockets into Israel (ample proof.) And if you need a kicker, even Egypt is stating that Hamas broke the cease fire.
So in the six months that Hamas (kind-of) followed the cease fire they have been able to rearm. But here is where it gets interesting: in those six months Israel has had its attention focused East, right at Iran and their nuclear program.
Hmmm.
So Iran funds Hamas, they want to complete their nuke program and Israel in mid-December states they are ready to strike Iran if necessary. And what happens? The Hamas cease fire is broken, rockets start raining down on Israel and attention is diverted back to Gaza.
Coinicidence? I don't think so.
Just as Hamas was starting to shoot rockets at Israel, Egypt had a major player come out and state that Iran wanted to dominate the entire region. So moderate Egypt isn't worried that Israeli planes and helicopters are pounding the crap out of Hamas, they are worried about Iran. This should speak volumes.
It will be interesting to see what happens with Syria and Lebanon in the next few weeks (if not days) at the start of 2009. I get the feeling if the Israeli ground forces move in and Syria and Lebanon do anything you will see Israel go on a full Seven Days War action and devistate their neighbors (excluding Egypt, I think they will sit this one out.) And if that happens, watch for Iran to either 1) leave Syria and Lebanon to their own Armies and get devistated or 2) give full assistance to the two countries while also giving Israel the perfect reason to bomb "strategic targets" inside of Iran.
Perhaps the most interesting thing if this happens will be the timing. Will this happen before Jan 20th when Barak Obama becomes president or after? If before, how much of a backbone will President Bush have with only days left in office or will he leave Israel hanging out to dry? If after, will Obama try to placate his Palistinian and Muslim supporters or will he listen to Rham Emmanuel, who was volunteer to the Israeli military in 1991?
Whatever happens, don't forget that what is going on right now in Gaza is not Israel's doing, you should place that at the feet of Hamas and Iran.